Survivorship Bias: Why Failure Means more than Success | ETO Consulting

Survivorship Bias: Why Failure Means more than Success

Posted by Tom Kuplic on June 07, 2013  /   Posted in Blog

Learn More From Story of Losing
Everybody loves the idea of standing on the top of the podium. We fawn after the winners and feel sorry for those who take second place. And when we ask those winners for their secrets, we expect to learn deep insights into what we should do to ascend to the same heights.

It is just as seductive to watch successful companies like Apple, Coca-Cola and Red Bull and think that if we just copy one element of what makes them successful, we will be successful too. I don’t think people really believe it, but it’s worth asking why we are not more focused on the companies that failed. In other words, maybe Borders can teach us more than Zappos.

Why Apple is Not Right for You

I have been reading a lot of marketing and business books in the past 10 years, and it is almost required that everyone writing about the key to a company’s success must use Apple as an example. Need to show how being an underdog is the key to succeeding; use Apple. Need to show how inspiring tribes through a shared belief is the key to success; cite Apple. How about showing why design led organization’s are the secret drivers of new products; bring in Apple. The problem with this case study mentality is that it falls into a research trap known as the survivorship bias.

The army learned this lesson in WWII when they realized it was fruitless to study the returning planes to decipher where to add more metal armor. The answer to that question was in the bullet holes of planes that didn’t return.

What We Gain from a Story of Failure

This means that when an organization fails or a campaign or event or a messaging attempt fails, our tendency is to either sweep it under the rug or to point fingers at each other. Don’t. This failure is gold. Immediately after your team has recovered from the failure bring people together for a “blame free postmortem.” Figure out why it didn’t work, bring that knowledge into your community, and learn how to tell the story of that failure. It will make people around you less scared of failing, more courageous to try and more likely to succeed.